Jastrzębie 0–1 Tychy 71: Result & Stats | I Liga

Jastrzębie

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tychy 71

4/29/2021

I Liga · Round 27Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jastrzębie38%

×Draw26%

Tychy 7136%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JastrzębieExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.31

Jastrzębie

1.34

Tychy 71

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 136 away

1.19

creates per match

1.22

1.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Jastrzębie

1.19

Tychy 71

1.22

allows per match

Jastrzębie

1.40

Tychy 71

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw

64%

Jastrzębie or Tychy 71

74%

Draw or Tychy 71

62%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

17%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

74%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

39%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

15%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

73%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

38%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

51%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jastrzębie scores more

38%

level

26%

Tychy 71 scores more

36%

Jastrzębie at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff