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Tychy 71 vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Tychy 71
Tychy 71
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
5/25/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Tychy 7143%
×Draw26%
Górnik Łęczna31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tychy 71
1.42
Górnik Łęczna
1.17

Tychy 71 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tychy 71
1.50
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Tychy 71
1.22
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw
69%
Tychy 71 or Górnik Łęczna
74%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
57%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+
20%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals
76%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
41%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
69%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
33%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
58%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tychy 71 scores more
43%
level
26%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
31%

Tychy 71 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tychy 71 vs Górnik Łęczna

Tychy 71 beat Górnik Łęczna 3-1 in I Liga on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.