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Górnik Łęczna vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
11/23/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 17Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Górnik Łęczna43%
×Draw26%
Tychy 7131%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.43
Tychy 71
1.17

Górnik Łęczna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 136 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.35
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.11
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
69%
Górnik Łęczna or Tychy 71
74%
Draw or Tychy 71
57%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
21%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
42%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
17%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
69%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
33%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
58%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
43%
level
26%
Tychy 71 scores more
31%

Górnik Łęczna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Tychy 71

Górnik Łęczna and Tychy 71 drew 2-2 in I Liga on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.