Tychy 71 1–2 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Tychy 71

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chrobry Głogów

D. Rumin 84' (pen)

R. Mandrysz 78'

S. Bartlewicz 27'

3/16/2024

I Liga · Round 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tychy 7140%

×Draw24%

Chrobry Głogów35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.43

Tychy 71

1.54

Chrobry Głogów

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

1.54

creates per match

0.98

1.88

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.54

Chrobry Głogów

0.98

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.88

Chrobry Głogów

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

65%

Tychy 71 or Chrobry Głogów

76%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

60%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

20%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

79%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

45%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

20%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

76%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

42%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

53%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.54 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.98 + Tychy 71 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

40%

level

24%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

35%

Tychy 71 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

S. Bartlewicz

46'

K. Skibicki← M. Dijaković

46'

M. Szpakowski← W. Żytek

46'

P. Mikita← M. Radecki

67'

K. Tabiś← S. Bartlewicz

67'

M. Ozimek← B. Biel

78'

R. Mandrysz

79'

M. Stangret← J. Budnicki

79'

T. Kurtaran← N. Wojtuszek

84'

D. RuminPenalty

87'

M. Bougaidis

88'

N. Nedic

88'

A. Szczutowski← M. Lebedyński

88'

P. Tupaj← J. Kuzdra

89'

M. Michalec← P. Mucha

90+8'

D. Hanc

Tychy

Chrobry

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Banasik

46'▲K. Skibicki←▼M. Dijaković

46'▲M. Szpakowski←▼W. Żytek

46'▲P. Mikita←▼M. Radecki

79'▲M. Stangret←▼J. Budnicki

79'▲T. Kurtaran←▼N. Wojtuszek

Tychy 71 substitutes

SkibickiSzpakowskiMikitaStangretKurtaranKostrzewskiBierońskiKrzakMystkowski

Manager: P. Plewnia

67'▲K. Tabiś←▼S. Bartlewicz

67'▲M. Ozimek←▼B. Biel

88'▲A. Szczutowski←▼M. Lebedyński

88'▲P. Tupaj←▼J. Kuzdra

89'▲M. Michalec←▼P. Mucha

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

TabiśOzimekSzczutowskiTupajMichalecBoguszKlimczakDybowskiMalczuk