Chrobry Głogów 3–2 Tychy 71: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tychy 71

K. Nowakowski 76'

S. Lewkot 55'

P. Janczukowicz 45'

P. Lysiak 72'

B. Jankowski 18'

5/3/2026

I Liga · Round 31Stadion Chrobrego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chrobry Głogów51%

×Draw24%

Tychy 7125%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.13

Chrobry Głogów

1.71

Tychy 71

1.13

Chrobry Głogów creates 51% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.48

creates per match

1.14

1.13

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.48

Tychy 71

1.14

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.13

Tychy 71

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

75%

Chrobry Głogów or Tychy 71

76%

Draw or Tychy 71

49%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

27%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

82%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

51%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

24%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

68%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

31%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

67%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.48 + Tychy 71 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tychy 71 attack 1.14 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

51%

level

24%

Tychy 71 scores more

25%

Chrobry Głogów at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

B. Jankowski↳ D. Kadzior

45'

46'

52'

53'

54'

55'

60'

S. Strozik← P. Janczukowicz

68'

K. Welniak← T. Kubik

69'

J. Lis← P. Tupaj

72'

P. Lysiak↳ B. Jankowski

76'

K. Nowakowski↳ K. Ibe-Torti

77'

D. Rumin← I. Lasicki

77'

P. Krawczyk← T. Rygula

80'

D. Rumin

82'

S. Strozik

88'

A. Zarowny← K. Laskowski

90+3'

S. Lewkot

Chrobry

Tychy

39

Madrzyk

37

Keiblinge

26

▼

Lasicki

2

▼

Silva

22

▼

Kubik

8

Szpakowsk

47

⚽A

Jankowski

11

Blachewic

92

A

Kadzior

24

Baranski

99

▼

Rygula

95

Lenarcik

29

▼

Tupaj

8

A

18

80

16

5

▼

Bak

23

⚽

Lewkot

15

⚽

Nowakowsk

27

▼

Laskowski

10

⚽

▼

Janczukow

Manager: Lukasz Becella

46'▲K. Ibe-Torti←▼R. Bak

60'▲S. Strozik←▼P. Janczukowicz

69'▲J. Lis←▼P. Tupaj

88'▲A. Zarowny←▼K. Laskowski

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

12Gawlowski7Bonecki17Ibe-Torti30Bartlewicz9Ozimek72Szablowski28Lis44Zarowny11Strozik

Manager: Lukasz Piszczek

54'▲P. Lysiak←▼L. Silva

68'▲K. Welniak←▼T. Kubik

77'▲D. Rumin←▼I. Lasicki

77'▲P. Krawczyk←▼T. Rygula

Tychy 71 substitutes

13Proczek9Rumin20Krawczyk23Adamczyk29Lysiak90Welniak