Tychy 71 2–2 Arka Gdynia: Result & Stats | I Liga

Tychy 71

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arka Gdynia

4/8/2023

I Liga · Round 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Tychy 7134%

×Draw26%

Arka Gdynia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchArka Gdynia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.44

Tychy 71

1.31

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Arka Gdynia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 85 away

1.50

creates per match

1.65

1.22

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.50

Arka Gdynia

1.65

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.22

Arka Gdynia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Arka Gdynia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

60%

Tychy 71 or Arka Gdynia

74%

Draw or Arka Gdynia

66%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

15%

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

73%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

38%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

14%

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

76%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

42%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

46%

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arka Gdynia attack 1.65 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

34%

level

26%

Arka Gdynia scores more

40%

Arka Gdynia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff