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Arka Gdynia vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
5/18/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Arka Gdynia49%
×Draw25%
Tychy 7126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.58
Tychy 71
1.09

Arka Gdynia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 136 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
1.67
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
0.97
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
74%
Arka Gdynia or Tychy 71
75%
Draw or Tychy 71
51%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
25%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
79%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
47%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
21%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
66%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
30%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
65%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
49%
level
25%
Tychy 71 scores more
26%

Arka Gdynia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Arka Gdynia 2–2 Tychy 71

Arka Gdynia and Tychy 71 drew 2-2 in I Liga on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gdynia.