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TWL Elektra vs Wiener SC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wiener SC
Wiener SC
10/10/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 11Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TWL Elektra37%
×Draw24%
Wiener SC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TWL Elektra
1.46
Wiener SC
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 100 away

creates per match

TWL Elektra
1.36
Wiener SC
1.61

allows per match

TWL Elektra
1.41
Wiener SC
1.55

finishing

TWL Elektra+0.00on par
Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TWL Elektra ↓

Wiener SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TWL Elektra or draw
61%
TWL Elektra or Wiener SC
76%
Draw or Wiener SC
63%

Winning margin

TWL Elektra wins by 2+
17%
Wiener SC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

TWL Elektra 1+ goals
77%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
43%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
18%
Wiener SC 1+ goals
78%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
44%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
49%
Wiener SC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TWL Elektra at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TWL Elektra attack 1.36 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + TWL Elektra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

TWL Elektra scores more
37%
level
24%
Wiener SC scores more
39%

Wiener SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: TWL Elektra 1–2 Wiener SC

Wiener SC beat TWL Elektra 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 10, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax in Wien.