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TWL Elektra vs Traiskirchen — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
3/7/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TWL Elektra37%
×Draw24%
Traiskirchen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TWL Elektra
1.54
Traiskirchen
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 101 away

creates per match

TWL Elektra
1.36
Traiskirchen
1.73

allows per match

TWL Elektra
1.41
Traiskirchen
1.73

finishing

TWL Elektra+0.00on par
Traiskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TWL Elektra ↓

Traiskirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TWL Elektra or draw
61%
TWL Elektra or Traiskirchen
76%
Draw or Traiskirchen
63%

Winning margin

TWL Elektra wins by 2+
18%
Traiskirchen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

TWL Elektra 1+ goals
79%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
45%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
20%
Traiskirchen 1+ goals
79%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
46%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
49%
Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TWL Elektra at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Traiskirchen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TWL Elektra attack 1.36 + Traiskirchen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Traiskirchen attack 1.73 + TWL Elektra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

TWL Elektra scores more
37%
level
24%
Traiskirchen scores more
39%

Traiskirchen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: TWL Elektra 0–0 Traiskirchen

TWL Elektra and Traiskirchen drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax in Wien.