Traiskirchen 3–0 TWL Elektra: Result & Stats

Traiskirchen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

TWL Elektra

4/30/2026

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 29ARBÖ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Traiskirchen50%

×Draw22%

TWL Elektra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TraiskirchenExpected goals in this matchTWL Elektra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.40

Traiskirchen

1.95

TWL Elektra

1.40

Traiskirchen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 73 away

1.86

creates per match

1.23

1.57

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Traiskirchen

1.86

TWL Elektra

1.23

allows per match

Traiskirchen

1.57

TWL Elektra

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Traiskirchen+0.00on par

TWL Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Traiskirchen ↓

TWL Elektra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Traiskirchen or draw

72%

Traiskirchen or TWL Elektra

78%

Draw or TWL Elektra

50%

Winning margin

Traiskirchen wins by 2+

29%

TWL Elektra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Traiskirchen 1+ goals

86%

Traiskirchen 2+ goals

58%

Traiskirchen 3+ goals

31%

TWL Elektra 1+ goals

75%

TWL Elektra 2+ goals

41%

TWL Elektra 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)

64%

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Traiskirchen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

TWL Elektra away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Traiskirchen attack 1.86 + TWL Elektra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.95

TWL Elektra attack 1.23 + Traiskirchen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Traiskirchen scores more

50%

level

22%

TWL Elektra scores more

28%

Traiskirchen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff