TWL Elektra 2–2 Favoritner AC: Result & Stats

TWL Elektra

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Favoritner AC

10/25/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 13Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

TWL Elektra49%

×Draw24%

Favoritner AC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TWL ElektraExpected goals in this matchFavoritner AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.21

TWL Elektra

1.69

Favoritner AC

1.21

TWL Elektra creates 40% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 46 away

1.36

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

TWL Elektra

1.36

Favoritner AC

1.00

allows per match

TWL Elektra

1.41

Favoritner AC

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TWL Elektra+0.00on par

Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TWL Elektra ↓

Favoritner AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

TWL Elektra or draw

73%

TWL Elektra or Favoritner AC

76%

Draw or Favoritner AC

51%

Winning margin

TWL Elektra wins by 2+

26%

Favoritner AC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

TWL Elektra 1+ goals

82%

TWL Elektra 2+ goals

50%

TWL Elektra 3+ goals

24%

Favoritner AC 1+ goals

70%

Favoritner AC 2+ goals

34%

Favoritner AC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)

64%

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TWL Elektra at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TWL Elektra attack 1.36 + Favoritner AC defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.69

Favoritner AC attack 1.00 + TWL Elektra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TWL Elektra scores more

49%

level

24%

Favoritner AC scores more

27%

TWL Elektra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TWL Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff