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Favoritner AC vs TWL Elektra — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
4/17/2026Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 27FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Favoritner AC46%
×Draw23%
TWL Elektra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Favoritner AC
1.73
TWL Elektra
1.39

Favoritner AC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

creates per match

Favoritner AC
1.43
TWL Elektra
1.23

allows per match

Favoritner AC
1.54
TWL Elektra
2.04

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par
TWL Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

TWL Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw
69%
Favoritner AC or TWL Elektra
77%
Draw or TWL Elektra
54%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+
24%
TWL Elektra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals
82%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
52%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
25%
TWL Elektra 1+ goals
75%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
40%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
59%
TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

TWL Elektra away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 1.43 + TWL Elektra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.73

TWL Elektra attack 1.23 + Favoritner AC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Favoritner AC scores more
46%
level
23%
TWL Elektra scores more
31%

Favoritner AC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Favoritner AC vs TWL Elektra

Favoritner AC beat TWL Elektra 1-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at FavAC - Platz in Wien.