Twente 0–0 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Twente

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

8/25/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsDe Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Twente40%

×Draw28%

Fiorentina33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TwenteExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Twente

1.27

Fiorentina

1.13

Twente creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

1.40

creates per match

1.85

0.40

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Twente

1.40

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

Twente

0.40

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Twente or draw

67%

Twente or Fiorentina

72%

Draw or Fiorentina

60%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+

18%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals

72%

Twente 2+ goals

36%

Twente 3+ goals

14%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

68%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

31%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)

55%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.40 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Twente defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Twente scores more

40%

level

28%

Fiorentina scores more

33%

Twente at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Terracciano

Fiorentina · G

8.9

Match Events

-5'

30'

43'

45+1'

58'

60'

R. Mandragora← Y. Maleh

63'

Ramiz Zerrouki

67'

C. Tzolis← V. Misidjan

67'

D. Rots← V. Černý

71'

L. Jović← Arthur Cabral

72'

N. González← R. Sottil

77'

Mees Hilgers

81'

M. Bruns← M. Hilgers

81'

M. Ugalde← M. Sadílek

83'

88'

90+3'

90+3'

90+4'

M. Benassi← G. Bonaventura

90+4'

L. Martínez← J. Ikoné

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TwenteFiorentina

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots8

6Corners5

18Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots8

8On Target5

2Off Target2

6Blocked1

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

325Total Passes388

230Accurate Passes294

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

UEFA Europa Conference League: Twente 0–0 Fiorentina

Twente and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 25, 2022.

Fiorentina controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.

Twente vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Twente 0–0 Fiorentina