Fiorentina 2–1 Twente: Result & Stats

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Twente

Arthur Cabral 31'

N. González 2'

V. Černý 64'

8/18/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsStadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiorentina51%

×Draw21%

Twente28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchTwente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.61

Fiorentina

2.21

Twente

1.61

Fiorentina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 4 away

2.41

creates per match

2.00

1.22

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fiorentina

2.41

Twente

2.00

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.22

Twente

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Twente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Twente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

72%

Fiorentina or Twente

79%

Draw or Twente

49%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

31%

Twente wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

89%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

65%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

38%

Twente 1+ goals

80%

Twente 2+ goals

48%

Twente 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

64%

Twente (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Twente away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Twente defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Twente attack 2.00 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiorentina scores more

51%

level

21%

Twente scores more

28%

Fiorentina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Biraghi

Fiorentina · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

31'

33'

39'

46'

46'

M. Hilgers← Julio Pleguezuelo

55'

Robin Pröpper

61'

J. Ikoné← R. Sottil

61'

R. Mandragora← A. Duncan

62'

Michel Vlap

64'

V. Černý

69'

L. Jović← Arthur Cabral

70'

Václav Černý

77'

C. Tzolis← V. Misidjan

86'

Dodô← L. Venuti

86'

C. Kouamé← N. González

89'

S. Steijn← R. Zerrouki

90+5'

Youssef Maleh

90+1'

Sofyan Amrabat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaTwente

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots5

3Corners1

11Fouls22

Shots

13Total Shots5

5On Target1

7Off Target2

1Blocked2

7Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

372Total Passes356

278Accurate Passes252

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls22

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Twente

Fiorentina beat Twente 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 18, 2022.

Goals: N. González (2'), Arthur Cabral (31'), V. Černý (64').

Fiorentina controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.

Fiorentina vs Twente — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Twente