Twente 2–1 FC Volendam: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Twente

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FC Volendam

K. Hlynsson 34'

R. Nijstad 2'

N. Bukala 74'

4/10/2026

Eredivisie · Round 30De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Twente64%

×Draw20%

FC Volendam16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TwenteExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.90

Twente

2.06

FC Volendam

0.90

Twente creates 129% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.96

creates per match

0.74

1.06

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Twente

1.96

FC Volendam

0.74

allows per match

Twente

1.06

FC Volendam

2.16

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Twente-0.17scores less

FC Volendam+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Twente or draw

84%

Twente or FC Volendam

80%

Draw or FC Volendam

36%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+

40%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals

87%

Twente 2+ goals

61%

Twente 3+ goals

34%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

59%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

23%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)

80%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.96 + FC Volendam defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.06

FC Volendam attack 0.74 + Twente defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Twente scores more

64%

level

20%

FC Volendam scores more

16%

Twente at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

S. Orjasaeter

Twente · M

8.5

Match Events

2'

R. Nijstad↳ S. Lammers

23'

Gibson Yah

34'

K. Hlynsson↳ S. Lammers

46'

A. Oehlers← G. Yah

62'

R. Muhren← B. Kuwas

63'

M. Pjaca← S. Orjasaeter

63'

M. Kjolo← R. Zerrouki

72'

H. Veerman← A. Descotte

72'

N. Bukala← R. van Cruijsen

74'

N. Bukala↳ R. Muhren

75'

T. Booth← R. van Wolfswinkel

75'

M. Bruns← B. van Rooij

75'

B. Pauwels← J. Ideho

85'

Taylor Booth

89'

R. Propper← K. Hlynsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TwenteFC

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots8

2.08Expected Goals (xG)1.15

7Corners1

8Fouls6

Shots

23Total Shots8

9On Target4

6Off Target1

8Blocked3

18Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

530Total Passes384

448Accurate Passes302

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

0.29Goals Prevented0.29

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0