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Twente vs FC Volendam — Eredivisie 2026

Twente
Twente
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
M. Hilgers 20'
V. Černý 17'
J. Brenet 16'
2/12/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 21De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Twente64%
×Draw20%
FC Volendam16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente
2.06
FC Volendam
0.90

Twente creates 129% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

Twente
1.96
FC Volendam
0.74

allows per match

Twente
1.06
FC Volendam
2.16

finishing

Twente-0.17scores less
FC Volendam+0.10scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Twente or draw
84%
Twente or FC Volendam
80%
Draw or FC Volendam
36%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+
40%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals
87%
Twente 2+ goals
61%
Twente 3+ goals
34%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
59%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
23%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)
80%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 1.96 + FC Volendam defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.06

FC Volendam attack 0.74 + Twente defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Twente scores more
64%
level
20%
FC Volendam scores more
16%

Twente at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
R. PröpperTwenteTwente · D
8.9

Match Events

16'
J. Brenet↳ R. Pröpper
17'
V. Černý↳ R. van Wolfswinkel
20'
M. Hilgers↳ R. Pröpper
46'
M. Sadílek← A. Salah-Eddine
46'
M. Vlap← S. Steijn
46'
B. Benamar← D. Mirani
46'
B. Ould-Chikh← J. Flint
62'
M. Ugalde← R. van Wolfswinkel
62'
D. James← F. Antonucci
66'
M. Bruns← M. Hilgers
73'
D. van Mieghem← F. Da Silva
78'
D. Rots← V. Misidjan
80'
I. El Kadiri← D. Murkin
88'
Robin Pröpper

Possession

65%Twente

Shots

18Twente

Pass accuracy

54%Twente

Statistics

TwenteFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
18Total Shots9
9Corners2
11Fouls7
Shots
18Total Shots9
9On Target2
6Off Target5
3Blocked2
10Inside Box4
8Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
602Total Passes321
511Accurate Passes228
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Twente vs FC Volendam

Twente beat FC Volendam 3-0 in Eredivisie on February 12, 2023.

Goals: J. Brenet (16'), V. Černý (17'), M. Hilgers (20').

Twente controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.