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Twente / Heracles U21 vs Almere City II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
FT
1 – 2
Almere City II
Almere City II
8/28/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 1FC Twente-trainingscentrum TC veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Twente / Heracles U2137%
×Draw22%
Almere City II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente / Heracles U21
1.74
Almere City II
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 29 away

creates per match

Twente / Heracles U21
1.85
Almere City II
2.03

allows per match

Twente / Heracles U21
1.63
Almere City II
1.62

finishing

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente / Heracles U21 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Twente / Heracles U21 or draw
59%
Twente / Heracles U21 or Almere City II
78%
Draw or Almere City II
63%

Winning margin

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
19%
Almere City II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
82%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
52%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
25%
Almere City II 1+ goals
84%
Almere City II 2+ goals
54%
Almere City II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
48%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente / Heracles U21 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.85 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Almere City II attack 2.03 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
37%
level
22%
Almere City II scores more
41%

Almere City II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Twente / Heracles U21 1–2 Almere City II

Almere City II beat Twente / Heracles U21 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at FC Twente-trainingscentrum TC veld 1 in Hengelo.