Almere City II 6–2 Twente / Heracles U21

Almere City II

FT

6 – 2

Twente / Heracles U21

2/4/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Sportpark Fanny Blankers-Koen Veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almere City II51%

×Draw21%

Twente / Heracles U2128%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City IIExpected goals in this matchTwente / Heracles U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.56

Almere City II

2.17

Twente / Heracles U21

1.56

Almere City II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 60 away

2.31

creates per match

1.82

1.31

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Almere City II

2.31

Twente / Heracles U21

1.82

allows per match

Almere City II

1.31

Twente / Heracles U21

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw

72%

Almere City II or Twente / Heracles U21

79%

Draw or Twente / Heracles U21

49%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+

31%

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals

89%

Almere City II 2+ goals

64%

Almere City II 3+ goals

36%

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals

79%

Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals

46%

Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)

65%

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.31 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.17

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + Almere City II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Almere City II scores more

51%

level

21%

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more

28%

Almere City II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff