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Tver vs Krasava Odintsovo — Second League - Group 2 2020

Tver
Tver
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
7/18/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tver40%
×Draw25%
Krasava Odintsovo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tver
1.46
Krasava Odintsovo
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tver
1.43
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

allows per match

Tver
1.19
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

finishing

Tver+0.00on par
Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tver or draw
65%
Tver or Krasava Odintsovo
75%
Draw or Krasava Odintsovo
60%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+
19%
Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals
77%
Tver 2+ goals
43%
Tver 3+ goals
18%
Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
74%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
39%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)
54%
Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tver scores more
40%
level
25%
Krasava Odintsovo scores more
35%

Tver at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Tver 3–1 Krasava Odintsovo

Tver beat Krasava Odintsovo 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Tver'.