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Krasava Odintsovo vs Tver — Second League - Group 2 2020

Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tver
Tver
11/14/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo50%
×Draw24%
Tver26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Odintsovo
1.67
Tver
1.13

Krasava Odintsovo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.87
Tver
1.26

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.00
Tver
1.46

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par
Tver+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Tver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw
74%
Krasava Odintsovo or Tver
76%
Draw or Tver
50%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
27%
Tver wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
81%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
50%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
23%
Tver 1+ goals
68%
Tver 2+ goals
31%
Tver 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
66%
Tver (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Tver away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Tver defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tver attack 1.26 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more
50%
level
24%
Tver scores more
26%

Krasava Odintsovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 0–0 Tver

Krasava Odintsovo and Tver drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.