Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tver vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Tver
Tver
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
11/10/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tver42%
×Draw27%
Kairat Moskva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tver
1.31
Kairat Moskva
1.09

Tver creates 20% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tver
1.43
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Tver
1.19
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Tver+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tver or draw
69%
Tver or Kairat Moskva
73%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
58%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+
19%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals
73%
Tver 2+ goals
38%
Tver 3+ goals
14%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
66%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)
57%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tver scores more
42%
level
27%
Kairat Moskva scores more
31%

Tver at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Tver 3–0 Kairat Moskva

Tver beat Kairat Moskva 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on November 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Tver'.