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Kairat Moskva vs Tver — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Tver
Tver
9/18/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva42%
×Draw24%
Tver34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
1.67
Tver
1.48

Kairat Moskva creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
1.88
Tver
1.26

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
1.69
Tver
1.46

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Tver+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Tver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
66%
Kairat Moskva or Tver
76%
Draw or Tver
58%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
22%
Tver wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
81%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
50%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
23%
Tver 1+ goals
77%
Tver 2+ goals
43%
Tver 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
55%
Tver (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Tver away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Tver defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tver attack 1.26 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
42%
level
24%
Tver scores more
34%

Kairat Moskva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Moskva vs Tver

Tver beat Kairat Moskva 6-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo in Odintsovo.