TVD Velbert 1–0 SF Hamborn: Result & Stats

TVD Velbert

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SF Hamborn

4/29/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Sportplatz Velbert Birth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

TVD Velbert51%

×Draw20%

SF Hamborn29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TVD VelbertExpected goals in this matchSF Hamborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.70

TVD Velbert

2.31

SF Hamborn

1.70

TVD Velbert creates 36% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 37 away

2.04

creates per match

1.62

1.78

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

TVD Velbert

2.04

SF Hamborn

1.62

allows per match

TVD Velbert

1.78

SF Hamborn

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TVD Velbert ↓

SF Hamborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

TVD Velbert or draw

71%

TVD Velbert or SF Hamborn

80%

Draw or SF Hamborn

49%

Winning margin

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

31%

SF Hamborn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

90%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

67%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

40%

SF Hamborn 1+ goals

82%

SF Hamborn 2+ goals

51%

SF Hamborn 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

64%

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TVD Velbert at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.78 · 76 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TVD Velbert attack 2.04 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.31

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + TVD Velbert defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TVD Velbert scores more

51%

level

20%

SF Hamborn scores more

29%

TVD Velbert at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff