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SF Hamborn vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
10/22/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15VT Ripkens Sportpark Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn43%
×Draw23%
TVD Velbert33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.75
TVD Velbert
1.51

SF Hamborn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 72 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
67%
SF Hamborn or TVD Velbert
77%
Draw or TVD Velbert
57%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
23%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
83%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
52%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
25%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
78%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
44%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
57%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.75

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
43%
level
23%
TVD Velbert scores more
33%

SF Hamborn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Hamborn 2–3 TVD Velbert

TVD Velbert beat SF Hamborn 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at VT Ripkens Sportpark Platz 3 in Duisburg.