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TVD Velbert vs Monheim — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monheim
Monheim
4/16/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 34Sportplatz Velbert Birth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

TVD Velbert45%
×Draw22%
Monheim33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TVD Velbert
1.93
Monheim
1.61

TVD Velbert creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 73 away

creates per match

TVD Velbert
2.04
Monheim
1.45

allows per match

TVD Velbert
1.78
Monheim
1.81

finishing

TVD Velbert+0.00on par
Monheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TVD Velbert ↓

Monheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

TVD Velbert or draw
67%
TVD Velbert or Monheim
78%
Draw or Monheim
55%

Winning margin

TVD Velbert wins by 2+
25%
Monheim wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

TVD Velbert 1+ goals
85%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
57%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
30%
Monheim 1+ goals
80%
Monheim 2+ goals
48%
Monheim 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
58%
Monheim (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TVD Velbert at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.78 · 76 matches

Monheim away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TVD Velbert attack 2.04 + Monheim defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.93

Monheim attack 1.45 + TVD Velbert defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TVD Velbert scores more
45%
level
22%
Monheim scores more
33%

TVD Velbert at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TVD Velbert vs Monheim

TVD Velbert and Monheim drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Velbert Birth in Velbert.