Monheim 0–1 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

Monheim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TVD Velbert

10/12/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 13Kunstrasenplatz Rheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Monheim46%

×Draw23%

TVD Velbert31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonheimExpected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.48

Monheim

1.84

TVD Velbert

1.48

Monheim creates 24% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 72 away

1.62

creates per match

1.38

1.59

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Monheim

1.62

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

Monheim

1.59

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monheim+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monheim ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Monheim or draw

69%

Monheim or TVD Velbert

77%

Draw or TVD Velbert

54%

Winning margin

Monheim wins by 2+

25%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Monheim 1+ goals

84%

Monheim 2+ goals

55%

Monheim 3+ goals

28%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

77%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

43%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Monheim (draw refunded)

60%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monheim at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monheim attack 1.62 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Monheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Monheim scores more

46%

level

23%

TVD Velbert scores more

31%

Monheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff