Tvååker 2–1 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

Tvååker

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ljungskile SK

5/21/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 9Övrevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Tvååker38%

×Draw26%

Ljungskile SK36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TvååkerExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.33

Tvååker

1.38

Ljungskile SK

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 90 away

1.29

creates per match

1.51

1.15

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tvååker

1.29

Ljungskile SK

1.51

allows per match

Tvååker

1.15

Ljungskile SK

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw

64%

Tvååker or Ljungskile SK

74%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

62%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+

18%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals

75%

Tvååker 2+ goals

40%

Tvååker 3+ goals

16%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

74%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

38%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)

52%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 97 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.46 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 1.29 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ljungskile SK attack 1.51 + Tvååker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tvååker scores more

38%

level

26%

Ljungskile SK scores more

36%

Tvååker at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff