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Ljungskile SK vs Tvååker — Ettan - Södra 2019

Ljungskile SK
Ljungskile SK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tvååker
Tvååker
11/11/2023Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 30Uddevalla Arena Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ljungskile SK49%
×Draw24%
Tvååker27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungskile SK
1.73
Tvååker
1.21

Ljungskile SK creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 97 away

creates per match

Ljungskile SK
2.07
Tvååker
1.33

allows per match

Ljungskile SK
1.09
Tvååker
1.39

finishing

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par
Tvååker+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungskile SK ↓

Tvååker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ljungskile SK or draw
73%
Ljungskile SK or Tvååker
76%
Draw or Tvååker
51%

Winning margin

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+
27%
Tvååker wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals
82%
Ljungskile SK 2+ goals
52%
Ljungskile SK 3+ goals
25%
Tvååker 1+ goals
70%
Tvååker 2+ goals
34%
Tvååker 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)
65%
Tvååker (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungskile SK at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Tvååker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungskile SK attack 2.07 + Tvååker defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tvååker attack 1.33 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ljungskile SK scores more
49%
level
24%
Tvååker scores more
27%

Ljungskile SK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ljungskile SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Ljungskile SK 2–0 Tvååker

Ljungskile SK beat Tvååker 2-0 in Ettan - Södra on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Uddevalla Arena Konstgräs in Ljungskile.