Tvååker 1–2 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Tvååker

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Falkenbergs FF

2/4/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Övrevi C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tvååker65%

×Draw18%

Falkenbergs FF17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TvååkerExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.22

Tvååker

2.52

Falkenbergs FF

1.22

Tvååker creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

3.83

creates per match

1.60

0.83

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Tvååker

3.83

Falkenbergs FF

1.60

allows per match

Tvååker

0.83

Falkenbergs FF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw

83%

Tvååker or Falkenbergs FF

82%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

35%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+

44%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals

92%

Tvååker 2+ goals

71%

Tvååker 3+ goals

45%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

70%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

34%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)

79%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 3.83 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.52

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.60 + Tvååker defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tvååker scores more

65%

level

18%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

17%

Tvååker at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff