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Tvååker vs Falkenbergs FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Tvååker
Tvååker
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
6/29/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 15Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tvååker27%
×Draw26%
Falkenbergs FF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tvååker
1.09
Falkenbergs FF
1.53

Falkenbergs FF creates 40% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tvååker
1.29
Falkenbergs FF
1.91

allows per match

Tvååker
1.15
Falkenbergs FF
0.89

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw
53%
Tvååker or Falkenbergs FF
74%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
73%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+
10%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals
66%
Tvååker 2+ goals
30%
Tvååker 3+ goals
10%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
78%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
45%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)
36%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 97 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 1.29 + Falkenbergs FF defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.91 + Tvååker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tvååker scores more
27%
level
26%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
47%

Falkenbergs FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Tvååker 0–1 Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat Tvååker 1-0 in Ettan - Södra on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.