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Tvååker vs Falkenbergs FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Tvååker
Tvååker
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
2/23/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Övrevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tvååker18%
×Draw19%
Falkenbergs FF63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tvååker
1.23
Falkenbergs FF
2.42

Falkenbergs FF creates 97% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tvååker
1.17
Falkenbergs FF
3.00

allows per match

Tvååker
1.83
Falkenbergs FF
1.29

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw
37%
Tvååker or Falkenbergs FF
81%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
82%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+
7%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals
71%
Tvååker 2+ goals
35%
Tvååker 3+ goals
13%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
91%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
69%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)
22%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 1.17 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Falkenbergs FF attack 3.00 + Tvååker defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tvååker scores more
18%
level
19%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
63%

Falkenbergs FF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tvååker vs Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat Tvååker 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Övrevi in Tvååker.