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Tuzla City vs Sloga Doboj — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
5/6/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 30Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Tuzla City53%
×Draw25%
Sloga Doboj22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.65
Sloga Doboj
0.98

Tuzla City creates 68% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.57
Sloga Doboj
0.76

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.20
Sloga Doboj
1.73

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Sloga Doboj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Sloga Doboj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
78%
Tuzla City or Sloga Doboj
75%
Draw or Sloga Doboj
47%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
28%
Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
81%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
49%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
23%
Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
62%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
26%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
70%
Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Sloga Doboj away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sloga Doboj attack 0.76 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tuzla City scores more
53%
level
25%
Sloga Doboj scores more
22%

Tuzla City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuzla City vs Sloga Doboj

Sloga Doboj beat Tuzla City 2-1 in Premijer Liga on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.