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Sloga Doboj vs Tuzla City — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
CANC
00:00
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
5/20/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sloga Doboj44%
×Draw27%
Tuzla City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
1.40
Tuzla City
1.11

Sloga Doboj creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
1.21
Tuzla City
1.04

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
1.18
Tuzla City
1.59

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
70%
Sloga Doboj or Tuzla City
73%
Draw or Tuzla City
56%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
21%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
75%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
41%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
17%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
67%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
30%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
59%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
44%
level
27%
Tuzla City scores more
30%

Sloga Doboj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sloga Doboj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sloga Doboj host Tuzla City

May 20, 2023: Sloga Doboj take on Tuzla City in Premijer Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.