Tuzla City 1–3 Radnik Hadžići: Result & Stats

Tuzla City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Radnik Hadžići

M. Alicic 39'

D. Sadikovic 75' (pen)

A. Bekic 37'

E. Rizvo 32'

10/18/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City48%

×Draw25%

Radnik Hadžići27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuzla CityExpected goals in this matchRadnik Hadžići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Tuzla City

1.54

Radnik Hadžići

1.08

Tuzla City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 94 away

1.48

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Tuzla City

1.48

Radnik Hadžići

0.97

allows per match

Tuzla City

1.19

Radnik Hadžići

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Radnik Hadžići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw

73%

Tuzla City or Radnik Hadžići

75%

Draw or Radnik Hadžići

52%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+

24%

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals

79%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

45%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

20%

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals

66%

Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals

29%

Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

64%

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tuzla City scores more

48%

level

25%

Radnik Hadžići scores more

27%

Tuzla City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

E. Rizvo

37'

A. Bekic

39'

M. Alicic

75'

D. SadikovicPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff