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Tuzla City vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Posušje
Posušje
4/26/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 28Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tuzla City51%
×Draw26%
Posušje24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.54
Posušje
0.96

Tuzla City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.57
Posušje
0.73

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.20
Posušje
1.52

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
76%
Tuzla City or Posušje
74%
Draw or Posušje
49%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
26%
Posušje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
79%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
45%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
20%
Posušje 1+ goals
62%
Posušje 2+ goals
25%
Posušje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
68%
Posušje (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Posušje attack 0.73 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tuzla City scores more
51%
level
26%
Posušje scores more
24%

Tuzla City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Tuzla City 3–1 Posušje

Tuzla City beat Posušje 3-1 in Premijer Liga on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.