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Posušje vs Tuzla City — Premijer Liga 2019

Posušje
Posušje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
9/30/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 9Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Posušje45%
×Draw27%
Tuzla City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posušje
1.36
Tuzla City
0.99

Posušje creates 37% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 78 away

creates per match

Posušje
1.14
Tuzla City
1.04

allows per match

Posušje
0.93
Tuzla City
1.59

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Posušje or draw
73%
Posušje or Tuzla City
73%
Draw or Tuzla City
55%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+
21%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals
74%
Posušje 2+ goals
39%
Posušje 3+ goals
16%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
63%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
26%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)
62%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Posušje scores more
45%
level
27%
Tuzla City scores more
27%

Posušje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posušje vs Tuzla City

Posušje and Tuzla City drew 1-1 in Premijer Liga on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mokri Dolac in Posušje.