Tuzla City 0–3 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Tuzla City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

GOŠK Gabela

M. Albijanic 74'

D. Kapitanovic 23'

E. Hasukic 9' (pen)

11/2/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City38%

×Draw27%

GOŠK Gabela36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuzla CityExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.24

Tuzla City

1.28

GOŠK Gabela

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 66 away

1.48

creates per match

1.29

1.19

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Tuzla City

1.48

GOŠK Gabela

1.29

allows per match

Tuzla City

1.19

GOŠK Gabela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw

64%

Tuzla City or GOŠK Gabela

73%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

62%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+

17%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals

72%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

37%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

14%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

71%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

35%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

51%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tuzla City scores more

38%

level

27%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

36%

Tuzla City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

E. HasukicPenalty

23'

D. Kapitanovic

74'

M. Albijanic

Tuzla

GOŠK

Manager: S. Petrović

Manager: D. Borovac