GOŠK Gabela 1–0 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

GOŠK Gabela

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tuzla City

D. Skorup 68'

4/19/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 27Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela30%

×Draw25%

Tuzla City45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK GabelaExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.53

GOŠK Gabela

1.20

Tuzla City

1.53

Tuzla City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 75 away

0.84

creates per match

1.03

2.03

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela

0.84

Tuzla City

1.03

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela

2.03

Tuzla City

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw

55%

GOŠK Gabela or Tuzla City

75%

Draw or Tuzla City

70%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

12%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

70%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

34%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

12%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

78%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

45%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

40%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Tuzla City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tuzla City attack 1.03 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more

30%

level

25%

Tuzla City scores more

45%

Tuzla City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

I. Batarelo

35'

L. Nizic

46'

D. Skorup← S. Marasovic

46'

D. Hodžić← F. Bihorac

68'

D. Skorup

75'

H. Karjašević← M. Delimeđac

75'

I. Jašarević← N. Nikić

78'

E. Hasukic

78'

A. Čajič← L. Nižić

81'

M. Sukilovic

81'

J. Osmić← I. Jašarević

89'

H. Karjasevic

90+1'

90+4'

90'

90+2'

GOŠK

Tuzla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Adžem

46'▲D. Skorup←▼S. Marasovic

78'▲A. Čajič←▼L. Nižić

90'▲T. Bradara←▼I. Ikić

90+2'▲N. Šero←▼E. Hasukić

GOŠK Gabela substitutes

SkorupČajičBradaraŠero

Manager: S. Petrović

46'▲D. Hodžić←▼F. Bihorac

75'▲H. Karjašević←▼M. Delimeđac

75'▲I. Jašarević←▼N. Nikić

81'▲J. Osmić←▼I. Jašarević

Tuzla City substitutes

HodžićKarjaševićJašarevićOsmić