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Tuzla City vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
11/24/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City55%
×Draw22%
Gornji Rahić23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.98
Gornji Rahić
1.20

Tuzla City creates 65% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
77%
Tuzla City or Gornji Rahić
78%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
45%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
32%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
86%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
59%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
31%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
70%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
34%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
71%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tuzla City scores more
55%
level
22%
Gornji Rahić scores more
23%

Tuzla City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Tuzla City 5–1 Gornji Rahić

Tuzla City beat Gornji Rahić 5-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion BARE in Simin Han.