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Gornji Rahić vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
6/8/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 30Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gornji Rahić69%
×Draw20%
Tuzla City11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
2.01
Tuzla City
0.67

Gornji Rahić creates 200% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
89%
Gornji Rahić or Tuzla City
80%
Draw or Tuzla City
31%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
43%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
87%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
59%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
32%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
49%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
15%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
86%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.01

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
69%
level
20%
Tuzla City scores more
11%

Gornji Rahić at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Gornji Rahić 1–0 Tuzla City

Gornji Rahić beat Tuzla City 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.