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Tuzla City vs Budućnost Banovići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
4/12/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 21Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City48%
×Draw25%
Budućnost Banovići27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.60
Budućnost Banovići
1.13

Tuzla City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
Budućnost Banovići
1.07

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
Budućnost Banovići
1.72

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Budućnost Banovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
73%
Tuzla City or Budućnost Banovići
75%
Draw or Budućnost Banovići
52%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
25%
Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
80%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
47%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
22%
Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
68%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
31%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
64%
Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tuzla City scores more
48%
level
25%
Budućnost Banovići scores more
27%

Tuzla City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuzla City vs Budućnost Banovići

Tuzla City beat Budućnost Banovići 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion BARE in Simin Han.