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Budućnost Banovići vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
F. Gradisic 43'
D. Huseinspahic 42'
H. Mesanovic 2'
3/22/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Budućnost Banovići67%
×Draw21%
Tuzla City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.94
Tuzla City
0.70

Budućnost Banovići creates 177% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 27 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.70
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
87%
Budućnost Banovići or Tuzla City
79%
Draw or Tuzla City
33%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
41%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
86%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
58%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
30%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
50%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
16%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
84%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.92 · 96 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.70 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
67%
level
21%
Tuzla City scores more
13%

Budućnost Banovići at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
H. Mesanovic
42'
D. Huseinspahic
43'
F. Gradisic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Banovići vs Tuzla City

Budućnost Banovići beat Tuzla City 3-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 22, 2026.

Goals: H. Mesanovic (2'), D. Huseinspahic (42'), F. Gradisic (43').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.