Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tuzla City vs Bratstvo Gračanica — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
P. Tesic 77'
4/8/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City46%
×Draw27%
Bratstvo Gračanica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.43
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.05

Tuzla City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 97 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.91

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.38

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
72%
Tuzla City or Bratstvo Gračanica
73%
Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica
54%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
22%
Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
76%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
42%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
17%
Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
65%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
28%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
62%
Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.91 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tuzla City scores more
46%
level
27%
Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
28%

Tuzla City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
P. Tesic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuzla City vs Bratstvo Gračanica

Tuzla City beat Bratstvo Gračanica 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 8, 2026.

Goals: P. Tesic (77').

The match was played at Stadion BARE in Simin Han.