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Bratstvo Gračanica vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
3/22/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica65%
×Draw21%
Tuzla City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Gračanica
2.01
Tuzla City
0.81

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 148% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.83
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.15
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw
86%
Bratstvo Gračanica or Tuzla City
79%
Draw or Tuzla City
35%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
40%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
87%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
59%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
32%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
56%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
19%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
82%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 98 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.83 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.01

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
65%
level
21%
Tuzla City scores more
14%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Bratstvo Gračanica 4–0 Tuzla City

Bratstvo Gračanica beat Tuzla City 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Gračanica.