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Tutin vs Takovo — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Tutin
Tutin
FT
0 – 2
Takovo
Takovo
3/16/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 17Stadion FK Tutin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Tutin49%
×Draw29%
Takovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tutin
1.27
Takovo
0.74

Tutin creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 101 away

creates per match

Tutin
1.28
Takovo
0.80

allows per match

Tutin
0.68
Takovo
1.25

finishing

Tutin+0.00on par
Takovo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tutin ↓

Takovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tutin or draw
78%
Tutin or Takovo
71%
Draw or Takovo
51%

Winning margin

Tutin wins by 2+
23%
Takovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tutin 1+ goals
72%
Tutin 2+ goals
36%
Tutin 3+ goals
14%
Takovo 1+ goals
52%
Takovo 2+ goals
17%
Takovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tutin (draw refunded)
69%
Takovo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tutin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Takovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.25 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tutin attack 1.28 + Takovo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Takovo attack 0.80 + Tutin defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tutin scores more
49%
level
29%
Takovo scores more
22%

Tutin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tutin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Tutin 0–2 Takovo

Takovo beat Tutin 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tutin in Tutin.