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Takovo vs Tutin — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Takovo
Takovo
FT
0 – 0
Tutin
Tutin
3/27/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 21Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Takovo52%
×Draw26%
Tutin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.53
Tutin
0.91

Takovo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 56 away

creates per match

Takovo
1.24
Tutin
0.88

allows per match

Takovo
0.94
Tutin
1.82

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
Tutin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Tutin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
78%
Takovo or Tutin
74%
Draw or Tutin
48%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
27%
Tutin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
78%
Takovo 2+ goals
45%
Takovo 3+ goals
20%
Tutin 1+ goals
60%
Tutin 2+ goals
23%
Tutin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
70%
Tutin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Tutin away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 1.24 + Tutin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tutin attack 0.88 + Takovo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Takovo scores more
52%
level
26%
Tutin scores more
22%

Takovo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Takovo 0 – 0 Tutin

Takovo and Tutin drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.