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Tutin vs Loznica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Tutin
Tutin
FT
2 – 0
Loznica
Loznica
5/18/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 27Stadion FK Tutin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tutin45%
×Draw29%
Loznica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tutin
1.25
Loznica
0.88

Tutin creates 42% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 39 away

creates per match

Tutin
1.28
Loznica
1.08

allows per match

Tutin
0.68
Loznica
1.23

finishing

Tutin+0.00on par
Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tutin ↓

Loznica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tutin or draw
74%
Tutin or Loznica
71%
Draw or Loznica
55%

Winning margin

Tutin wins by 2+
20%
Loznica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tutin 1+ goals
71%
Tutin 2+ goals
36%
Tutin 3+ goals
13%
Loznica 1+ goals
59%
Loznica 2+ goals
22%
Loznica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tutin (draw refunded)
63%
Loznica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tutin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Loznica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tutin attack 1.28 + Loznica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Loznica attack 1.08 + Tutin defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tutin scores more
45%
level
29%
Loznica scores more
26%

Tutin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tutin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Tutin 2–0 Loznica

Tutin beat Loznica 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tutin in Tutin.