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Loznica vs Tutin — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Loznica
Loznica
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tutin
Tutin
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Loznica59%
×Draw23%
Tutin18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loznica
1.76
Tutin
0.85

Loznica creates 107% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 56 away

creates per match

Loznica
1.70
Tutin
0.88

allows per match

Loznica
0.82
Tutin
1.82

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par
Tutin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

Tutin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Loznica or draw
82%
Loznica or Tutin
77%
Draw or Tutin
41%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+
33%
Tutin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals
83%
Loznica 2+ goals
52%
Loznica 3+ goals
26%
Tutin 1+ goals
57%
Tutin 2+ goals
21%
Tutin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)
77%
Tutin (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

Tutin away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.70 + Tutin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tutin attack 0.88 + Loznica defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Loznica scores more
59%
level
23%
Tutin scores more
18%

Loznica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Loznica 3 – 2 Tutin

Loznica beat Tutin 3-2 in Srpska Liga - West on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Klupci.