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Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
1/31/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Tusker44%
×Draw29%
Posta Rangers FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.21
Posta Rangers FC
0.88

Tusker creates 38% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 149 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
73%
Tusker or Posta Rangers FC
71%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
56%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
19%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
70%
Tusker 2+ goals
34%
Tusker 3+ goals
12%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
59%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
22%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
62%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tusker scores more
44%
level
29%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
27%

Tusker at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Tusker 1–1 Posta Rangers FC

Tusker and Posta Rangers FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Police Sacco Stadium in Nairobi.