Posta Rangers FC 1–3 Tusker: Result & Stats

Posta Rangers FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Tusker

12/21/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 15Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Posta Rangers FC29%

×Draw29%

Tusker42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Posta Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchTusker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.24

Posta Rangers FC

0.97

Tusker

1.24

Tusker creates 28% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 147 away

0.95

creates per match

1.34

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC

0.95

Tusker

1.34

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

Tusker

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Tusker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw

58%

Posta Rangers FC or Tusker

71%

Draw or Tusker

71%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

10%

Tusker wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

62%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

25%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

7%

Tusker 1+ goals

71%

Tusker 2+ goals

35%

Tusker 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

41%

Tusker (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.95 + Tusker defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tusker attack 1.34 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more

29%

level

29%

Tusker scores more

42%

Tusker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff